Real Tamale 2–3 Northern City: Result & Stats

Real Tamale

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Northern City

4/25/2026

Division One League · Round 27Aliu Mahama sports stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Tamale61%

×Draw22%

Northern City17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TamaleExpected goals in this matchNorthern City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.85

Real Tamale

1.85

Northern City

0.85

Real Tamale creates 118% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.07

creates per match

1.07

0.64

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Real Tamale

2.07

Northern City

1.07

allows per match

Real Tamale

0.64

Northern City

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par

Northern City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

Northern City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw

83%

Real Tamale or Northern City

78%

Draw or Northern City

39%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+

36%

Northern City wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals

84%

Real Tamale 2+ goals

55%

Real Tamale 3+ goals

28%

Northern City 1+ goals

57%

Northern City 2+ goals

21%

Northern City 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)

78%

Northern City (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Northern City away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 2.07 + Northern City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.85

Northern City attack 1.07 + Real Tamale defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Real Tamale scores more

61%

level

22%

Northern City scores more

17%

Real Tamale at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff