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Northern City vs Real Tamale — Division One League 2025

Northern City
Northern City
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Real Tamale
Real Tamale
11/2/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Northern City44%
×Draw27%
Real Tamale29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern City
1.40
Real Tamale
1.07

Northern City creates 31% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Northern City
1.93
Real Tamale
0.64

allows per match

Northern City
1.50
Real Tamale
0.86

finishing

Northern City+0.00on par
Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern City ↓

Real Tamale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Northern City or draw
71%
Northern City or Real Tamale
73%
Draw or Real Tamale
56%

Winning margin

Northern City wins by 2+
21%
Real Tamale wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Northern City 1+ goals
75%
Northern City 2+ goals
41%
Northern City 3+ goals
17%
Real Tamale 1+ goals
66%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
29%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Northern City (draw refunded)
61%
Real Tamale (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern City at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern City attack 1.93 + Real Tamale defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.40

Real Tamale attack 0.64 + Northern City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Northern City scores more
44%
level
27%
Real Tamale scores more
29%

Northern City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Northern City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northern City vs Real Tamale

Real Tamale beat Northern City 3-2 in Division One League on November 2, 2025.