Real Tamale 1–0 Legon Cities: Result & Stats

Real Tamale

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Legon Cities

M. Mankuyeli 62'

5/26/2024

Premier League · Round 31Naa Sheriga Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Real Tamale52%

×Draw29%

Legon Cities19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TamaleExpected goals in this matchLegon Cities

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.69

Real Tamale

1.33

Legon Cities

0.69

Real Tamale creates 93% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 92 away

1.29

creates per match

0.59

0.78

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Real Tamale

1.29

Legon Cities

0.59

allows per match

Real Tamale

0.78

Legon Cities

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

Legon Cities →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw

81%

Real Tamale or Legon Cities

71%

Draw or Legon Cities

48%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+

25%

Legon Cities wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals

74%

Real Tamale 2+ goals

38%

Real Tamale 3+ goals

15%

Legon Cities 1+ goals

50%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

15%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)

73%

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 1.29 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Real Tamale defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Tamale scores more

52%

level

29%

Legon Cities scores more

19%

Real Tamale at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

M. Mankuyeli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff