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Legon Cities vs Real Tamale — Premier League 2019

Legon Cities
Legon Cities
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Tamale
Real Tamale
S. Armah 71'
I. Kuka 83'
3/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Elwak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Legon Cities58%
×Draw24%
Real Tamale19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Legon Cities
1.72
Real Tamale
0.86

Legon Cities creates 100% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 53 away

creates per match

Legon Cities
1.23
Real Tamale
0.83

allows per match

Legon Cities
0.89
Real Tamale
2.21

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par
Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Real Tamale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw
81%
Legon Cities or Real Tamale
76%
Draw or Real Tamale
42%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+
32%
Real Tamale wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals
82%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
51%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
25%
Real Tamale 1+ goals
58%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
21%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)
76%
Real Tamale (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.23 + Real Tamale defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.72

Real Tamale attack 0.83 + Legon Cities defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Legon Cities scores more
58%
level
24%
Real Tamale scores more
19%

Legon Cities at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
E. Osei Bonsu
40'
M. Sadat
49'
O. Amadu← O. Amadu
51'
D. S. Badu
63'
R. Frimpong← R. Frimpong
65'
J. Mereku← J. Mereku
65'
D. Wazorzi← D. Wazorzi
70'
M. Suleman← M. Suleman
71'
S. Armah
72'
L. Sherrif← L. Sherrif
83'
83'
I. Kuka
86'
Husein← Husein
86'
L. Amankona← L. Amankona

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Legon Cities 1–1 Real Tamale

Legon Cities and Real Tamale drew 1-1 in Premier League on March 5, 2023.

Goals: S. Armah (71'), I. Kuka (83').

The match was played at Elwak Stadium in Accra.