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Real Tamale vs Kotoku Royals — Premier League 2019

Real Tamale
Real Tamale
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
Y. Nurudeen 87'
I. Kuka 58'
B. Kushibo 8'
Unknown 85'
R. Dzikoe 62'
1/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Tamale61%
×Draw24%
Kotoku Royals15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Tamale
1.68
Kotoku Royals
0.69

Real Tamale creates 143% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Real Tamale
1.29
Kotoku Royals
0.59

allows per match

Real Tamale
0.78
Kotoku Royals
2.06

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par
Kotoku Royals+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

Kotoku Royals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw
85%
Real Tamale or Kotoku Royals
76%
Draw or Kotoku Royals
39%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+
34%
Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals
81%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
50%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
24%
Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
50%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
15%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)
80%
Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Kotoku Royals away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 1.29 + Kotoku Royals defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Kotoku Royals attack 0.59 + Real Tamale defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Real Tamale scores more
61%
level
24%
Kotoku Royals scores more
15%

Real Tamale at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
B. Kushibo
54'
R. Frimpong← R. Frimpong
54'
I. Gadafi← I. Gadafi
58'
I. Kuka
62'
R. Dzikoe
72'
M. H. Abdulai← M. H. Abdulai
72'
A. Namhan← A. Namhan
72'
D. S. Badu← D. S. Badu
85'
87'
Y. Nurudeen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Tamale vs Kotoku Royals

Real Tamale beat Kotoku Royals 3-2 in Premier League on January 1, 2023.

Goals: B. Kushibo (8'), I. Kuka (58'), R. Dzikoe (62'), ? (85'), Y. Nurudeen (87').

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.