Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kotoku Royals vs Real Tamale — Premier League 2019

Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Tamale
Real Tamale
4/22/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotoku Royals55%
×Draw23%
Real Tamale22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotoku Royals
1.85
Real Tamale
1.07

Kotoku Royals creates 73% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kotoku Royals
1.47
Real Tamale
0.86

allows per match

Kotoku Royals
1.29
Real Tamale
2.22

finishing

Kotoku Royals+0.00on par
Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotoku Royals ↓

Real Tamale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kotoku Royals or draw
78%
Kotoku Royals or Real Tamale
77%
Draw or Real Tamale
45%

Winning margin

Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
32%
Real Tamale wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
84%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
55%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
28%
Real Tamale 1+ goals
66%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
29%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
72%
Real Tamale (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotoku Royals at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotoku Royals attack 1.47 + Real Tamale defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.85

Real Tamale attack 0.86 + Kotoku Royals defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kotoku Royals scores more
55%
level
23%
Real Tamale scores more
22%

Kotoku Royals at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kotoku Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
M. Mankuyeli← M. Mankuyeli
46'
A. Namhan← A. Namhan
60'
73'
G. Segla← G. Segla
74'
J. Renchi← J. Renchi
74'
L. Amankona← L. Amankona
90+7'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kotoku Royals vs Real Tamale

Kotoku Royals and Real Tamale drew 0-0 in Premier League on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.