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Real Tamale vs King Faisal — Premier League 2019

Real Tamale
Real Tamale
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
King Faisal
King Faisal
R. Frimpong 46'
6/12/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Real Tamale55%
×Draw26%
King Faisal19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Tamale
1.50
King Faisal
0.76

Real Tamale creates 97% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 59 away

creates per match

Real Tamale
1.31
King Faisal
0.71

allows per match

Real Tamale
0.81
King Faisal
1.68

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par
King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

King Faisal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw
81%
Real Tamale or King Faisal
74%
Draw or King Faisal
45%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+
28%
King Faisal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals
78%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
44%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
19%
King Faisal 1+ goals
53%
King Faisal 2+ goals
18%
King Faisal 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)
74%
King Faisal (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.81 · 52 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.68 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 1.31 + King Faisal defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

King Faisal attack 0.71 + Real Tamale defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Real Tamale scores more
55%
level
26%
King Faisal scores more
19%

Real Tamale at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
R. Frimpong

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Real Tamale 1–0 King Faisal

Real Tamale beat King Faisal 1-0 in Premier League on June 12, 2022.

Goals: R. Frimpong (46').

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.