King Faisal 2–0 Real Tamale: Result & Stats

King Faisal

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Tamale

E. Morrison 75'

D. Oppong 57'

2/5/2022

Premier League · Round 16Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

King Faisal56%

×Draw24%

Real Tamale20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

King FaisalExpected goals in this matchReal Tamale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.88

King Faisal

1.68

Real Tamale

0.88

King Faisal creates 91% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 53 away

1.15

creates per match

0.83

0.93

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

King Faisal

1.15

Real Tamale

0.83

allows per match

King Faisal

0.93

Real Tamale

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par

Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Real Tamale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw

80%

King Faisal or Real Tamale

76%

Draw or Real Tamale

44%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+

31%

Real Tamale wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals

81%

King Faisal 2+ goals

50%

King Faisal 3+ goals

24%

Real Tamale 1+ goals

59%

Real Tamale 2+ goals

22%

Real Tamale 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)

74%

Real Tamale (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 59 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.15 + Real Tamale defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.68

Real Tamale attack 0.83 + King Faisal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

King Faisal scores more

56%

level

24%

Real Tamale scores more

20%

King Faisal at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

32'

57'

D. Oppong

59'

Daniel Yemoh← Daniel Yemoh

59'

Z. Ibrahim← Z. Ibrahim

61'

75'

E. Morrison

88'

E. Sarfo← E. Sarfo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff