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Real Tamale vs Hearts of Oak — Premier League 2019

Real Tamale
Real Tamale
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
M. Umar 83'
2/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Real Tamale43%
×Draw32%
Hearts of Oak25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Tamale
1.07
Hearts of Oak
0.75

Real Tamale creates 43% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 108 away

creates per match

Real Tamale
1.29
Hearts of Oak
0.72

allows per match

Real Tamale
0.78
Hearts of Oak
0.86

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par
Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

Hearts of Oak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw
75%
Real Tamale or Hearts of Oak
68%
Draw or Hearts of Oak
57%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+
17%
Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals
66%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
29%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
9%
Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
53%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
17%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)
63%
Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 1.29 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.07

Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + Real Tamale defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Tamale scores more
43%
level
32%
Hearts of Oak scores more
25%

Real Tamale at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
M. Hafiz← M. Hafiz
49'
L. Amankona
59'
C. Appiah← C. Appiah
60'
L. Mtange
69'
F. Billey← F. Billey
69'
V. Aidoo← V. Aidoo
71'
R. Frimpong← R. Frimpong
83'
M. Umar
86'
S. Inkoom← Y. Ouatching

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Tamale vs Hearts of Oak

Real Tamale beat Hearts of Oak 1-0 in Premier League on February 5, 2023.

Goals: M. Umar (83').

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.