Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hearts of Oak vs Real Tamale — Premier League 2019

Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Real Tamale
Real Tamale
L. Mtange 35'
D. S. Badu 80'
M. Umar 46'
6/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hearts of Oak60%
×Draw23%
Real Tamale16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hearts of Oak
1.73
Real Tamale
0.76

Hearts of Oak creates 128% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 51 away

creates per match

Hearts of Oak
1.24
Real Tamale
0.86

allows per match

Hearts of Oak
0.65
Real Tamale
2.22

finishing

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par
Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hearts of Oak ↓

Real Tamale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hearts of Oak or draw
84%
Hearts of Oak or Real Tamale
77%
Draw or Real Tamale
40%

Winning margin

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+
34%
Real Tamale wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals
82%
Hearts of Oak 2+ goals
52%
Hearts of Oak 3+ goals
25%
Real Tamale 1+ goals
53%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
18%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)
79%
Real Tamale (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hearts of Oak at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.65 · 110 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hearts of Oak attack 1.24 + Real Tamale defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.73

Real Tamale attack 0.86 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hearts of Oak scores more
60%
level
23%
Real Tamale scores more
16%

Hearts of Oak at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hearts of Oak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
26'
31'
K. Yiadom← K. Yiadom
35'
L. Mtange
45'
46'
M. Umar
55'
A. Eonde← A. Eonde
64'
73'
E. Esso
80'
D. S. Badu
88'
90+3'
M. Hafiz
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hearts of Oak vs Real Tamale

Real Tamale beat Hearts of Oak 2-1 in Premier League on June 4, 2023.

Goals: L. Mtange (35'), M. Umar (46'), D. S. Badu (80').

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.