Real Tamale 2–0 Elmina Sharks: Result & Stats

Real Tamale

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Elmina Sharks

D. Sandan Abagna 40'

R. Frimpong 29'

12/19/2021

Premier League · Round 9Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Real Tamale57%

×Draw26%

Elmina Sharks17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TamaleExpected goals in this matchElmina Sharks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.70

Real Tamale

1.54

Elmina Sharks

0.70

Real Tamale creates 120% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 41 away

1.31

creates per match

0.59

0.81

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Real Tamale

1.31

Elmina Sharks

0.59

allows per match

Real Tamale

0.81

Elmina Sharks

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

Elmina Sharks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw

83%

Real Tamale or Elmina Sharks

74%

Draw or Elmina Sharks

43%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+

30%

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals

79%

Real Tamale 2+ goals

45%

Real Tamale 3+ goals

20%

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals

50%

Elmina Sharks 2+ goals

16%

Elmina Sharks 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)

77%

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.81 · 52 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.76 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 1.31 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Elmina Sharks attack 0.59 + Real Tamale defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Real Tamale scores more

57%

level

26%

Elmina Sharks scores more

17%

Real Tamale at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

R. Frimpong

40'

D. Sandan Abagna

46'

E. Boadi← E. Boadi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff