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Elmina Sharks vs Real Tamale — Premier League 2019

Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Real Tamale
Real Tamale
I. Donkor 14'
V. Aidoo 5'
4/24/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Elmina Sharks56%
×Draw24%
Real Tamale20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elmina Sharks
1.73
Real Tamale
0.93

Elmina Sharks creates 86% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 53 away

creates per match

Elmina Sharks
1.25
Real Tamale
0.83

allows per match

Elmina Sharks
1.02
Real Tamale
2.21

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par
Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Real Tamale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw
80%
Elmina Sharks or Real Tamale
76%
Draw or Real Tamale
44%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
31%
Real Tamale wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
82%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
52%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
25%
Real Tamale 1+ goals
61%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
24%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
74%
Real Tamale (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 44 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.25 + Real Tamale defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.73

Real Tamale attack 0.83 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more
56%
level
24%
Real Tamale scores more
20%

Elmina Sharks at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
V. Aidoo
5'
14'
I. Donkor
24'
30'
35'
40'
65'
70'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Elmina Sharks 1–1 Real Tamale

Elmina Sharks and Real Tamale drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 24, 2022.

Goals: V. Aidoo (5'), I. Donkor (14').

The match was played at Paa Kwesi Nduom Stadium in Elmina.