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Real Tamale vs Eleven Wonders — Premier League 2019

Real Tamale
Real Tamale
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Eleven Wonders
Eleven Wonders
5/29/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Real Tamale58%
×Draw26%
Eleven Wonders17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Tamale
1.54
Eleven Wonders
0.69

Real Tamale creates 123% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 58 away

creates per match

Real Tamale
1.29
Eleven Wonders
0.60

allows per match

Real Tamale
0.78
Eleven Wonders
1.79

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par
Eleven Wonders+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

Eleven Wonders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw
83%
Real Tamale or Eleven Wonders
74%
Draw or Eleven Wonders
42%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+
31%
Eleven Wonders wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals
79%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
45%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
20%
Eleven Wonders 1+ goals
50%
Eleven Wonders 2+ goals
15%
Eleven Wonders 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)
78%
Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Eleven Wonders away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.79 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 1.29 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Eleven Wonders attack 0.60 + Real Tamale defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Real Tamale scores more
58%
level
26%
Eleven Wonders scores more
17%

Real Tamale at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Real Tamale 0–0 Eleven Wonders

Real Tamale and Eleven Wonders drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.