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Eleven Wonders vs Real Tamale — Premier League 2019

Eleven Wonders
Eleven Wonders
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Tamale
Real Tamale
1/23/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Eleven Wonders53%
×Draw25%
Real Tamale22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eleven Wonders
1.64
Real Tamale
0.95

Eleven Wonders creates 73% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 51 away

creates per match

Eleven Wonders
1.05
Real Tamale
0.86

allows per match

Eleven Wonders
1.03
Real Tamale
2.22

finishing

Eleven Wonders+0.00on par
Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eleven Wonders ↓

Real Tamale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Eleven Wonders or draw
78%
Eleven Wonders or Real Tamale
75%
Draw or Real Tamale
47%

Winning margin

Eleven Wonders wins by 2+
29%
Real Tamale wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eleven Wonders 1+ goals
81%
Eleven Wonders 2+ goals
49%
Eleven Wonders 3+ goals
23%
Real Tamale 1+ goals
61%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
25%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)
71%
Real Tamale (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eleven Wonders at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eleven Wonders attack 1.05 + Real Tamale defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.64

Real Tamale attack 0.86 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Eleven Wonders scores more
53%
level
25%
Real Tamale scores more
22%

Eleven Wonders at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Eleven Wonders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Eleven Wonders 1–0 Real Tamale

Eleven Wonders beat Real Tamale 1-0 in Premier League on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Ohene Ameyaw Park in Techiman.