Real Tamale 1–1 Bolga AllStars: Result & Stats

Real Tamale

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bolga AllStars

4/11/2026

Division One League · Round 26Aliu Mahama sports stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Tamale70%

×Draw19%

Bolga AllStars11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TamaleExpected goals in this matchBolga AllStars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.64

Real Tamale

2.04

Bolga AllStars

0.64

Real Tamale creates 219% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.07

creates per match

0.64

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Real Tamale

2.07

Bolga AllStars

0.64

allows per match

Real Tamale

0.64

Bolga AllStars

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par

Bolga AllStars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

Bolga AllStars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw

89%

Real Tamale or Bolga AllStars

81%

Draw or Bolga AllStars

30%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+

45%

Bolga AllStars wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals

87%

Real Tamale 2+ goals

60%

Real Tamale 3+ goals

33%

Bolga AllStars 1+ goals

47%

Bolga AllStars 2+ goals

14%

Bolga AllStars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)

87%

Bolga AllStars (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Bolga AllStars away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 2.07 + Bolga AllStars defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Bolga AllStars attack 0.64 + Real Tamale defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Real Tamale scores more

70%

level

19%

Bolga AllStars scores more

11%

Real Tamale at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff