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Bolga AllStars vs Real Tamale — Division One League 2025

Bolga AllStars
Bolga AllStars
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Tamale
Real Tamale
10/19/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bolga AllStars51%
×Draw26%
Real Tamale23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolga AllStars
1.53
Real Tamale
0.93

Bolga AllStars creates 65% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Bolga AllStars
2.21
Real Tamale
0.64

allows per match

Bolga AllStars
1.21
Real Tamale
0.86

finishing

Bolga AllStars+0.00on par
Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolga AllStars ↓

Real Tamale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bolga AllStars or draw
77%
Bolga AllStars or Real Tamale
74%
Draw or Real Tamale
49%

Winning margin

Bolga AllStars wins by 2+
26%
Real Tamale wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bolga AllStars 1+ goals
78%
Bolga AllStars 2+ goals
45%
Bolga AllStars 3+ goals
20%
Real Tamale 1+ goals
61%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
24%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bolga AllStars (draw refunded)
69%
Real Tamale (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolga AllStars at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolga AllStars attack 2.21 + Real Tamale defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.53

Real Tamale attack 0.64 + Bolga AllStars defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bolga AllStars scores more
51%
level
26%
Real Tamale scores more
23%

Bolga AllStars at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bolga AllStars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Bolga AllStars 0–1 Real Tamale

Real Tamale beat Bolga AllStars 1-0 in Division One League on October 19, 2025.