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Real Tamale vs Bofoakwe Tano — Premier League 2019

Real Tamale
Real Tamale
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bofoakwe Tano
Bofoakwe Tano
M. Alhassani 90+3'
S. Dauda 37' (pen)
3/4/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Golden City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Tamale50%
×Draw29%
Bofoakwe Tano21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Tamale
1.29
Bofoakwe Tano
0.71

Real Tamale creates 82% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

creates per match

Real Tamale
1.30
Bofoakwe Tano
0.59

allows per match

Real Tamale
0.83
Bofoakwe Tano
1.29

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par
Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

Bofoakwe Tano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw
79%
Real Tamale or Bofoakwe Tano
71%
Draw or Bofoakwe Tano
50%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+
24%
Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals
72%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
37%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
14%
Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals
51%
Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals
16%
Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)
71%
Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.83 · 53 matches

Bofoakwe Tano away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 1.30 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.59 + Real Tamale defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Tamale scores more
50%
level
29%
Bofoakwe Tano scores more
21%

Real Tamale at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
37'
S. DaudaPenalty
46'
M. Iddriss← M. Iddriss
51'
62'
83'
90+3'
M. Alhassani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Real Tamale 1–1 Bofoakwe Tano

Real Tamale and Bofoakwe Tano drew 1-1 in Premier League on March 4, 2024.

Goals: S. Dauda (37' pen), M. Alhassani (90+3').

The match was played at Golden City Park in Berekum.