Bofoakwe Tano 2–1 Real Tamale: Result & Stats

Bofoakwe Tano

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Real Tamale

S. Owusu 89' (pen)

S. Dauda 14'

M. H. Abdulai 62'

9/22/2023

Premier League · Round 2Coronation Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bofoakwe Tano51%

×Draw27%

Real Tamale22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bofoakwe TanoExpected goals in this matchReal Tamale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.84

Bofoakwe Tano

1.44

Real Tamale

0.84

Bofoakwe Tano creates 71% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

0.65

creates per match

0.86

0.82

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Bofoakwe Tano

0.65

Real Tamale

0.86

allows per match

Bofoakwe Tano

0.82

Real Tamale

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bofoakwe Tano+0.00on par

Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bofoakwe Tano ↓

Real Tamale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bofoakwe Tano or draw

78%

Bofoakwe Tano or Real Tamale

73%

Draw or Real Tamale

49%

Winning margin

Bofoakwe Tano wins by 2+

26%

Real Tamale wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bofoakwe Tano 1+ goals

76%

Bofoakwe Tano 2+ goals

42%

Bofoakwe Tano 3+ goals

18%

Real Tamale 1+ goals

57%

Real Tamale 2+ goals

21%

Real Tamale 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bofoakwe Tano (draw refunded)

70%

Real Tamale (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bofoakwe Tano at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bofoakwe Tano attack 0.65 + Real Tamale defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Real Tamale attack 0.86 + Bofoakwe Tano defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bofoakwe Tano scores more

51%

level

27%

Real Tamale scores more

22%

Bofoakwe Tano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bofoakwe Tano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

I. Gadafi

14'

S. Dauda

24'

L. Adabo

57'

B. Kushibo

60'

M. Iddriss← M. Iddriss

60'

62'

M. H. Abdulai

65'

69'

82'

J. Renchi← J. Renchi

89'

S. OwusuPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff