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Real Tamale vs Bechem United — Premier League 2019

Real Tamale
Real Tamale
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bechem United
Bechem United
11/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Real Tamale51%
×Draw27%
Bechem United22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Tamale
1.43
Bechem United
0.82

Real Tamale creates 74% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 110 away

creates per match

Real Tamale
1.30
Bechem United
0.82

allows per match

Real Tamale
0.83
Bechem United
1.55

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par
Bechem United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

Bechem United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw
78%
Real Tamale or Bechem United
73%
Draw or Bechem United
49%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+
26%
Bechem United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals
76%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
42%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
17%
Bechem United 1+ goals
56%
Bechem United 2+ goals
20%
Bechem United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)
70%
Bechem United (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.83 · 53 matches

Bechem United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 1.30 + Bechem United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bechem United attack 0.82 + Real Tamale defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Tamale scores more
51%
level
27%
Bechem United scores more
22%

Real Tamale at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Real Tamale 0–0 Bechem United

Real Tamale and Bechem United drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium in Tamale.