Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bechem United vs Real Tamale — Premier League 2019

Bechem United
Bechem United
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Real Tamale
Real Tamale
4/14/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Bechem Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bechem United65%
×Draw22%
Real Tamale13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bechem United
1.79
Real Tamale
0.64

Bechem United creates 180% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 51 away

creates per match

Bechem United
1.36
Real Tamale
0.86

allows per match

Bechem United
0.41
Real Tamale
2.22

finishing

Bechem United+0.00on par
Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bechem United ↓

Real Tamale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bechem United or draw
87%
Bechem United or Real Tamale
78%
Draw or Real Tamale
35%

Winning margin

Bechem United wins by 2+
38%
Real Tamale wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bechem United 1+ goals
83%
Bechem United 2+ goals
53%
Bechem United 3+ goals
26%
Real Tamale 1+ goals
47%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
14%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bechem United (draw refunded)
84%
Real Tamale (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bechem United at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.41 · 109 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bechem United attack 1.36 + Real Tamale defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.79

Real Tamale attack 0.86 + Bechem United defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bechem United scores more
65%
level
22%
Real Tamale scores more
13%

Bechem United at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bechem United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bechem United vs Real Tamale

Bechem United beat Real Tamale 3-2 in Premier League on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Bechem Park in Bechem.