Real Tamale 2–2 Ashanti Gold: Result & Stats

Real Tamale

FT

2 – 2

Ashanti Gold

10/7/2012

Premier League · Round 1Aliu Mahama Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Real Tamale48%

×Draw28%

Ashanti Gold23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TamaleExpected goals in this matchAshanti Gold

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.83

Real Tamale

1.33

Ashanti Gold

0.83

Real Tamale creates 60% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 45 away

1.30

creates per match

0.84

0.83

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Real Tamale

1.30

Ashanti Gold

0.84

allows per match

Real Tamale

0.83

Ashanti Gold

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

Ashanti Gold →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw

77%

Real Tamale or Ashanti Gold

72%

Draw or Ashanti Gold

52%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+

23%

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals

74%

Real Tamale 2+ goals

38%

Real Tamale 3+ goals

15%

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals

56%

Ashanti Gold 2+ goals

20%

Ashanti Gold 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)

67%

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.83 · 53 matches

Ashanti Gold away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 1.30 + Ashanti Gold defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ashanti Gold attack 0.84 + Real Tamale defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Real Tamale scores more

48%

level

28%

Ashanti Gold scores more

23%

Real Tamale at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff