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Ashanti Gold vs Real Tamale — Premier League 2019

Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
FT
2 – 0
Real Tamale
Real Tamale
6/23/2013Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ashanti Gold68%
×Draw20%
Real Tamale12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ashanti Gold
2.00
Real Tamale
0.70

Ashanti Gold creates 186% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 53 away

creates per match

Ashanti Gold
1.78
Real Tamale
0.83

allows per match

Ashanti Gold
0.58
Real Tamale
2.21

finishing

Ashanti Gold+0.00on par
Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ashanti Gold ↓

Real Tamale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ashanti Gold or draw
88%
Ashanti Gold or Real Tamale
80%
Draw or Real Tamale
32%

Winning margin

Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
42%
Real Tamale wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
86%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
59%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
32%
Real Tamale 1+ goals
50%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
16%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
85%
Real Tamale (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ashanti Gold at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ashanti Gold attack 1.78 + Real Tamale defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.00

Real Tamale attack 0.83 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ashanti Gold scores more
68%
level
20%
Real Tamale scores more
12%

Ashanti Gold at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ashanti Gold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ashanti Gold vs Real Tamale

Ashanti Gold beat Real Tamale 2-0 in Premier League on June 23, 2013.

The match was played at Len Clay Stadium in Obuasi.