Real Tamale 0–2 Asante Kotoko: Result & Stats

Real Tamale

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Asante Kotoko

6/8/2024

Premier League · Round 33Naa Sheriga Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Real Tamale41%

×Draw32%

Asante Kotoko27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real TamaleExpected goals in this matchAsante Kotoko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.81

Real Tamale

1.08

Asante Kotoko

0.81

Real Tamale creates 33% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 109 away

1.29

creates per match

0.84

0.78

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Real Tamale

1.29

Asante Kotoko

0.84

allows per match

Real Tamale

0.78

Asante Kotoko

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Tamale+0.00on par

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Tamale ↓

Asante Kotoko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Real Tamale or draw

73%

Real Tamale or Asante Kotoko

68%

Draw or Asante Kotoko

59%

Winning margin

Real Tamale wins by 2+

17%

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Tamale 1+ goals

66%

Real Tamale 2+ goals

29%

Real Tamale 3+ goals

10%

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals

56%

Asante Kotoko 2+ goals

19%

Asante Kotoko 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Tamale (draw refunded)

61%

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Tamale at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.87 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Tamale attack 1.29 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.08

Asante Kotoko attack 0.84 + Real Tamale defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Tamale scores more

41%

level

32%

Asante Kotoko scores more

27%

Real Tamale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Tamale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff