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Asante Kotoko vs Real Tamale — Premier League 2019

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Tamale
Real Tamale
12/24/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Asante Kotoko63%
×Draw22%
Real Tamale15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.85
Real Tamale
0.76

Asante Kotoko creates 143% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 51 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
1.47
Real Tamale
0.86

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.65
Real Tamale
2.22

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Real Tamale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
85%
Asante Kotoko or Real Tamale
78%
Draw or Real Tamale
37%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
37%
Real Tamale wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
84%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
55%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
28%
Real Tamale 1+ goals
53%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
18%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
81%
Real Tamale (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.65 · 108 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + Real Tamale defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.85

Real Tamale attack 0.86 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
63%
level
22%
Real Tamale scores more
15%

Asante Kotoko at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Asante Kotoko 1–0 Real Tamale

Asante Kotoko beat Real Tamale 1-0 in Premier League on December 24, 2023.

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.