Réal Sport 2–2 Hodio: Result & Stats

Réal Sport

FT

2 – 2

Hodio

12/16/2023

Championnat National · Round 12Stade Omnisports de Ouessè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Réal Sport35%

×Draw33%

Hodio32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Réal SportExpected goals in this matchHodio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

0.85

Réal Sport

0.91

Hodio

0.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 93 away

0.84

creates per match

0.85

0.86

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Réal Sport

0.84

Hodio

0.85

allows per match

Réal Sport

0.86

Hodio

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Réal Sport+0.00on par

Hodio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Réal Sport ↓

Hodio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Réal Sport or draw

68%

Réal Sport or Hodio

67%

Draw or Hodio

65%

Winning margin

Réal Sport wins by 2+

12%

Hodio wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Réal Sport 1+ goals

60%

Réal Sport 2+ goals

23%

Réal Sport 3+ goals

6%

Hodio 1+ goals

57%

Hodio 2+ goals

21%

Hodio 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Réal Sport (draw refunded)

52%

Hodio (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Réal Sport at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.86 · 83 matches

Hodio away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.98 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Réal Sport attack 0.84 + Hodio defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Hodio attack 0.85 + Réal Sport defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Réal Sport scores more

35%

level

33%

Hodio scores more

32%

Réal Sport at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Réal Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff