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Hodio vs Réal Sport — Championnat National 2019

Hodio
Hodio
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Réal Sport
Réal Sport
11/30/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 10Stade de Comè

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Hodio48%
×Draw32%
Réal Sport21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hodio
1.14
Réal Sport
0.64

Hodio creates 78% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 82 away

creates per match

Hodio
1.12
Réal Sport
0.46

allows per match

Hodio
0.82
Réal Sport
1.16

finishing

Hodio+0.00on par
Réal Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hodio ↓

Réal Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Hodio or draw
79%
Hodio or Réal Sport
68%
Draw or Réal Sport
52%

Winning margin

Hodio wins by 2+
21%
Réal Sport wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hodio 1+ goals
68%
Hodio 2+ goals
32%
Hodio 3+ goals
11%
Réal Sport 1+ goals
47%
Réal Sport 2+ goals
14%
Réal Sport 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Hodio (draw refunded)
70%
Réal Sport (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hodio at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.82 · 93 matches

Réal Sport away — creates 0.46, concedes 1.16 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hodio attack 1.12 + Réal Sport defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Réal Sport attack 0.46 + Hodio defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hodio scores more
48%
level
32%
Réal Sport scores more
21%

Hodio at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hodio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Hodio 0–0 Réal Sport

Hodio and Réal Sport drew 0-0 in Championnat National on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de Comè in Comè.