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Real Sociedad W vs Real Betis W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Betis W
Real Betis W
M. Vanegas 90+3'
Elene Guridi 80'
Amaiur Sarriegi 49', 34'
10/12/2024Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 6Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Real Sociedad W57%
×Draw22%
Real Betis W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad W
1.99
Real Betis W
1.15

Real Sociedad W creates 73% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 104 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad W
1.87
Real Betis W
1.03

allows per match

Real Sociedad W
1.26
Real Betis W
2.10

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par
Real Betis W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Real Betis W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw
78%
Real Sociedad W or Real Betis W
78%
Draw or Real Betis W
43%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
34%
Real Betis W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
86%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
59%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
32%
Real Betis W 1+ goals
68%
Real Betis W 2+ goals
32%
Real Betis W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
72%
Real Betis W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Real Betis W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.10 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Real Betis W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.99

Real Betis W attack 1.03 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more
57%
level
22%
Real Betis W scores more
22%

Real Sociedad W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Amaiur SarriegiReal Sociedad WReal Sociedad W · F
9.0

Match Events

4'
K. Cahynova
34'
Amaiur Sarriegi↳ Lucía Rodríguez
46'
Rosa Márquez← Estela Fernández
49'
Amaiur Sarriegi↳ Nerea Eizagirre
51'
Elene Guridi← K. Cahynová
57'
R. Roberts
61'
T. Cameron← Júlia Aguado
62'
Y. Zouhir← Carla Armengol
67'
María Jiménez← R. Roberts
71'
Lucía Pardo← Lorena Navarro
78'
Cecilia Marcos← Amaiur Sarriegi
78'
Elene Viles← Emma Ramírez
78'
E. Santoro← Nuria Ligero
79'
Mirari Uria← S. Franssi
80'
Elene Guridi↳ Lucía Pardo
87'
E. Santoro
90+3'
M. Vanegas

Possession

68%Real

Shots

13Real

Pass accuracy

53%Real

Statistics

RealReal
Overview
68%Possession32%
13Total Shots11
5Corners1
5Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots11
8On Target1
5Off Target9
0Blocked1
10Inside Box2
3Outside Box9
Passing
68%Possession32%
595Total Passes273
506Accurate Passes202
85%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
5Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Real Sociedad W vs Real Betis W

Real Sociedad W beat Real Betis W 4-0 in Primera División Femenina on October 12, 2024.

Goals: Amaiur Sarriegi (34', 49'), Elene Guridi (80'), M. Vanegas (90+3').

Real Sociedad W controlled possession (68%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Donostia-San Sebastián.