Real Sociedad W 2–2 FC Levante Badalona W

Real Sociedad W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FC Levante Badalona W

S. Jensen 75'

Nahia Aparicio 13'

Irina Uribe 67'

G. Chebbak 36'

6/15/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 30Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Real Sociedad W57%

×Draw22%

FC Levante Badalona W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad WExpected goals in this matchFC Levante Badalona W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.07

Real Sociedad W

1.91

FC Levante Badalona W

1.07

Real Sociedad W creates 79% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 60 away

1.87

creates per match

0.88

1.26

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Real Sociedad W

1.87

FC Levante Badalona W

0.88

allows per match

Real Sociedad W

1.26

FC Levante Badalona W

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

FC Levante Badalona W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw

79%

Real Sociedad W or FC Levante Badalona W

78%

Draw or FC Levante Badalona W

43%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+

33%

FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals

85%

Real Sociedad W 2+ goals

57%

Real Sociedad W 3+ goals

30%

FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals

66%

FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals

29%

FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)

73%

FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 117 matches

FC Levante Badalona W away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.91

FC Levante Badalona W attack 0.88 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more

57%

level

22%

FC Levante Badalona W scores more

21%

Real Sociedad W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Nahia Aparicio

Real Sociedad W · D

7.7

Match Events

13'

Nahia Aparicio

36'

G. Chebbak↳ A. Poljak

53'

Elene Guridi← Iris Arnaiz

53'

Amaiur Sarriegi← Cecilia Marcos

63'

Morgane Nicoli

64'

Alejandra Bernabé← Izarne Sarasola

65'

S. Jensen← Mirari Uria

65'

A. Lahmari← J. Martínez

67'

Irina Uribe↳ Laura Martínez

75'

S. Jensen↳ Nerea Eizagirre

77'

Elena Julve← Laura Martínez

78'

J. Owusu← S. Franssi

78'

D. Čonč← Y. MRabet

87'

Aina Meya← M. Nicoli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealFC

Overview

69%Possession31%

15Total Shots13

4Corners0

10Fouls5

Shots

15Total Shots13

4On Target4

5Off Target6

6Blocked3

9Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

69%Possession31%

571Total Passes264

479Accurate Passes175

84%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls5

0Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2

Primera División Femenina: Real Sociedad W 2–2 FC Levante Badalona W

Real Sociedad W and FC Levante Badalona W drew 2-2 in Primera División Femenina on June 15, 2024.

Goals: Nahia Aparicio (13'), G. Chebbak (36'), Irina Uribe (67'), S. Jensen (75').

Real Sociedad W controlled possession (69%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta in Donostia-San Sebastián.

Real Sociedad W vs FC Levante Badalona W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División Femenina: Real Sociedad W 2–2 FC Levante Badalona W