FC Levante Badalona W 0–2 Real Sociedad W

FC Levante Badalona W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Real Sociedad W

L. Pardo 90'

E. Imade 49'

9/27/2025

Primera División Femenina · Round 5Ciudad Deportiva de Bunol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

FC Levante Badalona W30%

×Draw25%

Real Sociedad W45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Levante Badalona WExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.59

FC Levante Badalona W

1.25

Real Sociedad W

1.59

Real Sociedad W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 118 away

1.02

creates per match

1.64

1.55

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

FC Levante Badalona W

1.02

Real Sociedad W

1.64

allows per match

FC Levante Badalona W

1.55

Real Sociedad W

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Levante Badalona W ↓

Real Sociedad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Levante Badalona W or draw

55%

FC Levante Badalona W or Real Sociedad W

75%

Draw or Real Sociedad W

70%

Winning margin

FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+

13%

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals

71%

FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals

36%

FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals

13%

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals

80%

Real Sociedad W 2+ goals

47%

Real Sociedad W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)

40%

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Levante Badalona W at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.55 · 60 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.47 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Levante Badalona W attack 1.02 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.25

Real Sociedad W attack 1.64 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Levante Badalona W scores more

30%

level

25%

Real Sociedad W scores more

45%

Real Sociedad W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

L. M. Rodriguez Herrero

49'

E. Imade

67'

A. Gonzalez Rosa← S. Jankovska

67'

S. Junge-Pedersen← M. Llompart Pons

67'

P. Fernandez← I. Eguiguren

77'

L. Pardo← N. Eizaguirre

77'

M. Uria Gabilondo← A. Aparicio

82'

I. Uribe← P. Sanchez

87'

E. Guridi← A. Jacinto

87'

M. Molina← L. M. Rodriguez Herrero

90'

L. Pardo↳ K. Cahynova

FC

Real

13

Arrula

12

▼

4

3

24

19

▼

Aparicio

22

A

Cahynova

8

▼

Jacinto

14

▼

Eguiguren

10

▼

Eizaguirr

23

⚽

13

2

23

4

16

17

▼

Sanchez

8

▼

Jankovska

11

Julve

6

▼

Pons

18

Gomez

14

Kullashi

Manager: Anabel Junyent Iglesias

67'▲A. Gonzalez Rosa←▼S. Jankovska

67'▲S. Junge-Pedersen←▼M. Llompart Pons

82'▲I. Uribe←▼P. Sanchez

FC Levante Badalona W substitutes

1Valenzuela21Barclais27Doltra3Pujadas40Carmona20Rosa24Junge-Pedersen19Navarro7Uribe

Manager: Arturo Ruiz Álvarez

67'▲P. Fernandez←▼I. Eguiguren

77'▲L. Pardo←▼N. Eizaguirre

77'▲M. Uria Gabilondo←▼A. Aparicio

87'▲E. Guridi←▼A. Jacinto

87'▲M. Molina←▼L. M. Rodriguez Herrero

Real Sociedad W substitutes

1Estensoro5Fernandez6Guridi7Pardo9Gabilondo11Marcos20Molina