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Real Sociedad W vs Alhama W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Alhama W
Alhama W
11/23/2025Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 12Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Real Sociedad W65%
×Draw19%
Alhama W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad W
2.27
Alhama W
1.03

Real Sociedad W creates 120% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 30 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad W
1.87
Alhama W
0.80

allows per match

Real Sociedad W
1.26
Alhama W
2.67

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par
Alhama W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Alhama W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw
84%
Real Sociedad W or Alhama W
81%
Draw or Alhama W
35%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
42%
Alhama W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
90%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
66%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
39%
Alhama W 1+ goals
64%
Alhama W 2+ goals
28%
Alhama W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
80%
Alhama W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Alhama W away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Alhama W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.27

Alhama W attack 0.80 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more
65%
level
19%
Alhama W scores more
16%

Real Sociedad W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Real Sociedad W 3–1 Alhama W

Real Sociedad W beat Alhama W 3-1 in Primera División Femenina on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta in Lasarte-Oria.