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Alhama W vs Real Sociedad W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Alhama W
Alhama W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Sociedad W
Real Sociedad W
4/15/2023Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 25Campo de Fútbol José María Soriano Muñoz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Alhama W24%
×Draw24%
Real Sociedad W52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alhama W
1.11
Real Sociedad W
1.74

Real Sociedad W creates 57% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 119 away

creates per match

Alhama W
0.77
Real Sociedad W
1.65

allows per match

Alhama W
1.83
Real Sociedad W
1.46

finishing

Alhama W+0.00on par
Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alhama W ↓

Real Sociedad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Alhama W or draw
48%
Alhama W or Real Sociedad W
76%
Draw or Real Sociedad W
76%

Winning margin

Alhama W wins by 2+
9%
Real Sociedad W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Alhama W 1+ goals
67%
Alhama W 2+ goals
30%
Alhama W 3+ goals
10%
Real Sociedad W 1+ goals
82%
Real Sociedad W 2+ goals
52%
Real Sociedad W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Alhama W (draw refunded)
32%
Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alhama W at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alhama W attack 0.77 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.11

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Alhama W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Alhama W scores more
24%
level
24%
Real Sociedad W scores more
52%

Real Sociedad W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División Femenina: Alhama W 1–1 Real Sociedad W

Alhama W and Real Sociedad W drew 1-1 in Primera División Femenina on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol José María Soriano Muñoz in Alhama de Murcia.