Real Sociedad U19 2–1 Benfica U19: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Benfica U19

Iker Otadui 13'

Pablo Arenzana 5'

João Rêgo 42'

11/8/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Real Sociedad U1926%

×Draw19%

Benfica U1955%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad U19Expected goals in this matchBenfica U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.42

Real Sociedad U19

1.63

Benfica U19

2.42

Benfica U19 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 24 away

1.67

creates per match

2.83

2.00

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Real Sociedad U19

1.67

Benfica U19

2.83

allows per match

Real Sociedad U19

2.00

Benfica U19

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad U19+0.00on par

Benfica U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad U19 ↓

Benfica U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Real Sociedad U19 or draw

45%

Real Sociedad U19 or Benfica U19

81%

Draw or Benfica U19

74%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad U19 wins by 2+

12%

Benfica U19 wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Real Sociedad U19 1+ goals

80%

Real Sociedad U19 2+ goals

48%

Real Sociedad U19 3+ goals

22%

Benfica U19 1+ goals

91%

Benfica U19 2+ goals

69%

Benfica U19 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Benfica U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Benfica U19 away — creates 2.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad U19 attack 1.67 + Benfica U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

Benfica U19 attack 2.83 + Real Sociedad U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Real Sociedad U19 scores more

26%

level

19%

Benfica U19 scores more

55%

Benfica U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Benfica U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Pablo Arenzana↳ Dario Ramirez

13'

Iker Otadui↳ Aimar Olarra

19'

J. Rego

27'

J. Fonseca

37'

R. Luis

42'

João Rêgo↳ Tiago Parente

48'

I. Otadui

62'

A. Amenabar

64'

Jon Garro← Iker Otadui

66'

Olívio Tomé← Ivan Lima

68'

P. Arenzana

74'

Lander Astiazarán← Aritz Amenabar

74'

Gorka Gorosabel← Pablo Arenzana

75'

L. Beitia

76'

Gonçalo Moreira← K. Lubrano

81'

João Conceição← Tiago Parente

81'

João Veloso← João Rêgo

84'

G. Gorosabel

86'

G. Gorosabel

86'

G. Gorosabel

86'

Eneko Behobide← Martín Arruti

90+2'

J. Garro

Real

Benfica

1

Velickovi

4

Fonseca

2

Spencer

5

A

▼

6

8

3

11

▼

Lima

10

⚽

▼

Rêgo

9

Varela

7

▼

1

5

4

3

A

Olarra

2

▼

Amenabar

6

Lebarbier

8

▼

Arruti

11

⚽

▼

Otadui

10

Mariezkur

7

A

Ramirez

9

⚽

▼

Arenzana

Manager: Mikel Llorente

64'▲Jon Garro←▼Iker Otadui

74'▲Lander Astiazarán←▼Aritz Amenabar

74'▲Gorka Gorosabel←▼Pablo Arenzana

86'▲Eneko Behobide←▼Martín Arruti

Real Sociedad U19 substitutes

17Garro15Astiazarán16Gorosabel12Behobide18Garcia14Torres13Jiménez

Manager: Luís Araújo

66'▲Olívio Tomé←▼Ivan Lima

76'▲Gonçalo Moreira←▼K. Lubrano

81'▲João Conceição←▼Tiago Parente

81'▲João Veloso←▼João Rêgo

Benfica U19 substitutes

18Tomé17Moreira13Conceição16Veloso15Okon-Engstler14Oliveira12Mendes-Dudziński

Match Recap: Real Sociedad U19 vs Benfica U19

Real Sociedad U19 beat Benfica U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 8, 2023.

Goals: Pablo Arenzana (5'), Iker Otadui (13'), João Rêgo (42').

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Donostia-San Sebastián.

Real Sociedad U19 vs Benfica U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Sociedad U19 vs Benfica U19