Benfica U19 2–1 Real Sociedad U19: Result & Stats

Benfica U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Real Sociedad U19

Rafael Luís 79'

K. Lubrano 25'

Martín Arruti 20'

10/24/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Caixa Futebol Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Benfica U1971%

×Draw16%

Real Sociedad U1913%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benfica U19Expected goals in this matchReal Sociedad U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.04

Benfica U19

2.63

Real Sociedad U19

1.04

Benfica U19 creates 153% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 3 away

2.58

creates per match

1.00

1.08

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Benfica U19

2.58

Real Sociedad U19

1.00

allows per match

Benfica U19

1.08

Real Sociedad U19

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica U19+0.00on par

Real Sociedad U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica U19 ↓

Real Sociedad U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Benfica U19 or draw

87%

Benfica U19 or Real Sociedad U19

84%

Draw or Real Sociedad U19

29%

Winning margin

Benfica U19 wins by 2+

49%

Real Sociedad U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Benfica U19 1+ goals

93%

Benfica U19 2+ goals

73%

Benfica U19 3+ goals

48%

Real Sociedad U19 1+ goals

65%

Real Sociedad U19 2+ goals

28%

Real Sociedad U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Benfica U19 (draw refunded)

85%

Real Sociedad U19 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

Real Sociedad U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica U19 attack 2.58 + Real Sociedad U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.63

Real Sociedad U19 attack 1.00 + Benfica U19 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Benfica U19 scores more

71%

level

16%

Real Sociedad U19 scores more

13%

Benfica U19 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Benfica U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

J. Wynder

20'

Martín Arruti

25'

K. Lubrano↳ Rafael Luís

31'

M. Gibelalde

45+1'

A. Segurola

57'

K. Folgado

59'

Gorka Gorosabel← Manex Gibelalde

59'

Jon Garro← Alejandro Nores

59'

Alain Velarde← Dario Ramirez

76'

K. Mustmaa← K. Lubrano

76'

Gonçalo Moreira← Hugo Félix

76'

Lander Astiazarán← Martín Arruti

79'

Rafael Luís↳ Diogo Spencer

82'

Pablo Arenzana← Arkaitz Mariezkurrena

89'

Carlos Almeida← Ivan Lima

89'

João Veloso← Diogo Prioste

90+3'

E. Orobengoa

90+6'

I. Ropero

Benfica

Real

1

4

3

6

2

▼

Nores

5

Segurola

8

▼

Gibelalde

10

⚽

▼

Arruti

11

Orobengoa

9

▼

Mariezkur

7

▼

1

3

4

2

A

Spencer

5

Parente

6

▼

Prioste

8

⚽A

Luís

10

▼

Félix

11

▼

Lima

9

Rêgo

7

⚽

▼

Lubrano

Manager: Luís Araújo

76'▲K. Mustmaa←▼K. Lubrano

76'▲Gonçalo Moreira←▼Hugo Félix

89'▲Carlos Almeida←▼Ivan Lima

89'▲João Veloso←▼Diogo Prioste

Benfica U19 substitutes

18Mustmaa16Moreira17Almeida15Veloso12Mendes-Dudziński13Conceição14Okon-Engstler

Manager: Mikel Llorente

59'▲Gorka Gorosabel←▼Manex Gibelalde

59'▲Jon Garro←▼Alejandro Nores

59'▲Alain Velarde←▼Dario Ramirez

76'▲Lander Astiazarán←▼Martín Arruti

82'▲Pablo Arenzana←▼Arkaitz Mariezkurrena

Real Sociedad U19 substitutes

16Gorosabel17Garro13Velarde14Astiazarán18Arenzana15Otadui12Imanol

Match Recap: Benfica U19 vs Real Sociedad U19

Benfica U19 beat Real Sociedad U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 24, 2023.

Goals: Martín Arruti (20'), K. Lubrano (25'), Rafael Luís (79').

The match was played at Caixa Futebol Campus in Seixal.

Benfica U19 vs Real Sociedad U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Benfica U19 vs Real Sociedad U19