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Real Sociedad III vs Lagun Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Real Sociedad III
Real Sociedad III
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Lagun Onak
Lagun Onak
11/8/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Campo José Luis Orbegozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Real Sociedad III49%
×Draw27%
Lagun Onak25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad III
1.45
Lagun Onak
0.95

Real Sociedad III creates 53% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 114 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad III
1.57
Lagun Onak
0.97

allows per match

Real Sociedad III
0.93
Lagun Onak
1.32

finishing

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par
Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad III ↓

Lagun Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Sociedad III or draw
75%
Real Sociedad III or Lagun Onak
73%
Draw or Lagun Onak
51%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+
24%
Lagun Onak wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals
77%
Real Sociedad III 2+ goals
42%
Real Sociedad III 3+ goals
18%
Lagun Onak 1+ goals
61%
Lagun Onak 2+ goals
25%
Lagun Onak 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)
66%
Lagun Onak (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad III at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

Lagun Onak away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad III attack 1.57 + Lagun Onak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Lagun Onak attack 0.97 + Real Sociedad III defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Sociedad III scores more
49%
level
27%
Lagun Onak scores more
25%

Real Sociedad III at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Lagun Onak

Lagun Onak beat Real Sociedad III 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Campo José Luis Orbegozo in Donostia-San Sebastián.