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Lagun Onak vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Lagun Onak
Lagun Onak
CANC
00:00
Real Sociedad III
Real Sociedad III
4/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Estadio Garmendipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Lagun Onak40%
×Draw26%
Real Sociedad III34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lagun Onak
1.44
Real Sociedad III
1.31

Lagun Onak creates 10% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 44 away

creates per match

Lagun Onak
1.35
Real Sociedad III
1.66

allows per match

Lagun Onak
0.97
Real Sociedad III
1.52

finishing

Lagun Onak+0.00on par
Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagun Onak ↓

Real Sociedad III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lagun Onak or draw
66%
Lagun Onak or Real Sociedad III
74%
Draw or Real Sociedad III
60%

Winning margin

Lagun Onak wins by 2+
19%
Real Sociedad III wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lagun Onak 1+ goals
76%
Lagun Onak 2+ goals
42%
Lagun Onak 3+ goals
18%
Real Sociedad III 1+ goals
73%
Real Sociedad III 2+ goals
38%
Real Sociedad III 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)
54%
Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lagun Onak at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lagun Onak attack 1.35 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.44

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Lagun Onak defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lagun Onak scores more
40%
level
26%
Real Sociedad III scores more
34%

Lagun Onak at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lagun Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lagun Onak vs Real Sociedad III — Match Preview

Lagun Onak face Real Sociedad III on April 9, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lagun Onak host Real Sociedad III at Estadio Garmendipe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.