Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Sociedad III vs Deportivo Alavés III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Real Sociedad III
Real Sociedad III
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
9/28/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Campo José Luis Orbegozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Real Sociedad III50%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Alavés III24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad III
1.49
Deportivo Alavés III
0.94

Real Sociedad III creates 59% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 51 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad III
1.57
Deportivo Alavés III
0.94

allows per match

Real Sociedad III
0.93
Deportivo Alavés III
1.41

finishing

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad III ↓

Deportivo Alavés III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Sociedad III or draw
76%
Real Sociedad III or Deportivo Alavés III
74%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés III
50%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+
25%
Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals
77%
Real Sociedad III 2+ goals
44%
Real Sociedad III 3+ goals
19%
Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
61%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
24%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)
68%
Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad III at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

Deportivo Alavés III away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad III attack 1.57 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Deportivo Alavés III attack 0.94 + Real Sociedad III defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Sociedad III scores more
50%
level
26%
Deportivo Alavés III scores more
24%

Real Sociedad III at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Sociedad III 1 – 0 Deportivo Alavés III

Real Sociedad III beat Deportivo Alavés III 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Campo José Luis Orbegozo in Donostia-San Sebastián.