Deportivo Alavés III 3–0 Real Sociedad III

Deportivo Alavés III

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Real Sociedad III

2/7/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Deportivo Alavés III43%

×Draw25%

Real Sociedad III32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Alavés IIIExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.33

Deportivo Alavés III

1.58

Real Sociedad III

1.33

Deportivo Alavés III creates 19% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 44 away

1.65

creates per match

1.66

1.00

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés III

1.65

Real Sociedad III

1.66

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés III

1.00

Real Sociedad III

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés III ↓

Real Sociedad III →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés III or draw

68%

Deportivo Alavés III or Real Sociedad III

75%

Draw or Real Sociedad III

57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+

22%

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals

79%

Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals

47%

Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals

21%

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

74%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

38%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)

57%

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés III at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés III attack 1.65 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Alavés III scores more

43%

level

25%

Real Sociedad III scores more

32%

Deportivo Alavés III at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés III vs Real Sociedad III

Deportivo Alavés III beat Real Sociedad III 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 7, 2026.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón 4 in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Deportivo Alavés III vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés III vs Real Sociedad III