Real Sociedad III 0–1 Basconia: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad III

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Basconia

2/22/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Estadio Berio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Real Sociedad III38%

×Draw28%

Basconia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIIExpected goals in this matchBasconia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.14

Real Sociedad III

1.23

Basconia

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 95 away

1.57

creates per match

1.34

0.93

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Real Sociedad III

1.57

Basconia

1.34

allows per match

Real Sociedad III

0.93

Basconia

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Basconia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad III ↓

Basconia →

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Real Sociedad III or draw

66%

Real Sociedad III or Basconia

72%

Draw or Basconia

62%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

17%

Basconia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

71%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

35%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

13%

Basconia 1+ goals

68%

Basconia 2+ goals

32%

Basconia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

53%

Basconia (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad III at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

Basconia away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.89 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad III attack 1.57 + Basconia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.23

Basconia attack 1.34 + Real Sociedad III defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Sociedad III scores more

38%

level

28%

Basconia scores more

34%

Real Sociedad III at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Real Sociedad III 0–1 Basconia

Basconia beat Real Sociedad III 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Berio in Berio.

Real Sociedad III vs Basconia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Real Sociedad III 0–1 Basconia