Basconia 2–2 Real Sociedad III: Result & Stats

Basconia

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Real Sociedad III

Xabier Arberas 71'

Y. Diarra 8'

Elizondo 33'

Imanol Galarreta 14'

9/29/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Estadio Pedro López Cortázar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Basconia47%

×Draw23%

Real Sociedad III29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BasconiaExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.32

Basconia

1.75

Real Sociedad III

1.32

Basconia creates 33% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 44 away

1.97

creates per match

1.66

0.99

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Basconia

1.97

Real Sociedad III

1.66

allows per match

Basconia

0.99

Real Sociedad III

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Basconia+0.00on par

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basconia ↓

Real Sociedad III →

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Basconia or draw

71%

Basconia or Real Sociedad III

77%

Draw or Real Sociedad III

53%

Winning margin

Basconia wins by 2+

26%

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Basconia 1+ goals

83%

Basconia 2+ goals

52%

Basconia 3+ goals

25%

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

73%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

38%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Basconia (draw refunded)

62%

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Basconia at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.99 · 95 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Basconia attack 1.97 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.75

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Basconia defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Basconia scores more

47%

level

23%

Real Sociedad III scores more

29%

Basconia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Basconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Y. Diarra

14'

Imanol Galarreta

33'

Elizondo

46'

Javier Rudi← Alex Ibarrondo

57'

Beñat Imaz← Joanes Begiristain

61'

Azcona← Xabi Naveira

68'

Unai García← Javier Martón

71'

Xabier Arberas

77'

Iker Kortajarena← Ekain Regil

81'

Unai Naveira← Beñat Prados

Basconia

Real

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Patxi Salinas

46'▲Javier Rudi←▼Alex Ibarrondo

61'▲Azcona←▼Xabi Naveira

81'▲Unai Naveira←▼Beñat Prados

Basconia substitutes

RudiAzconaNaveira

Manager: Sergio Francisco

57'▲Beñat Imaz←▼Joanes Begiristain

68'▲Unai García←▼Javier Martón

77'▲Iker Kortajarena←▼Ekain Regil

Real Sociedad III substitutes

ImazGarcíaKortajarena

Match Recap: Basconia vs Real Sociedad III

Basconia and Real Sociedad III drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 29, 2019.

Goals: Y. Diarra (8'), Imanol Galarreta (14'), Elizondo (33'), Xabier Arberas (71').

The match was played at Estadio Pedro López Cortázar in Basauri.

Basconia vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Basconia vs Real Sociedad III