Real Sociedad III 4–1 Aurrerá Ondarroa

Real Sociedad III

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Aurrerá Ondarroa

11/29/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Real Sociedad III53%

×Draw25%

Aurrerá Ondarroa22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIIExpected goals in this matchAurrerá Ondarroa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.93

Real Sociedad III

1.61

Aurrerá Ondarroa

0.93

Real Sociedad III creates 73% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 66 away

1.57

creates per match

0.92

0.93

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Real Sociedad III

1.57

Aurrerá Ondarroa

0.92

allows per match

Real Sociedad III

0.93

Aurrerá Ondarroa

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad III ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Real Sociedad III or draw

78%

Real Sociedad III or Aurrerá Ondarroa

75%

Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa

47%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

28%

Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

80%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

48%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

22%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals

61%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals

24%

Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

71%

Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad III at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.93 · 44 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad III attack 1.57 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Real Sociedad III defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Sociedad III scores more

53%

level

25%

Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more

22%

Real Sociedad III at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Aurrerá Ondarroa

Real Sociedad III beat Aurrerá Ondarroa 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Lasarte-Oria.

Real Sociedad III vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Real Sociedad III vs Aurrerá Ondarroa