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Aurrerá Ondarroa vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Real Sociedad III
Real Sociedad III
2/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Campo de fútbol de Zaldupe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa34%
×Draw26%
Real Sociedad III41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.27
Real Sociedad III
1.42

Real Sociedad III creates 12% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 44 away

creates per match

Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.03
Real Sociedad III
1.66

allows per match

Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.17
Real Sociedad III
1.52

finishing

Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par
Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurrerá Ondarroa ↓

Real Sociedad III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Aurrerá Ondarroa or draw
59%
Aurrerá Ondarroa or Real Sociedad III
74%
Draw or Real Sociedad III
66%

Winning margin

Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
15%
Real Sociedad III wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
72%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
36%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
14%
Real Sociedad III 1+ goals
76%
Real Sociedad III 2+ goals
41%
Real Sociedad III 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
45%
Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurrerá Ondarroa at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.17 · 66 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 1.03 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.27

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
34%
level
26%
Real Sociedad III scores more
41%

Real Sociedad III at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Sociedad III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1 – 3 Real Sociedad III

Real Sociedad III beat Aurrerá Ondarroa 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Zaldupe in Ondarroa.