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Real Sociedad II vs Ourense CF — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ourense CF
Ourense CF
12/22/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Reale Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Real Sociedad II49%
×Draw27%
Ourense CF24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad II
1.41
Ourense CF
0.89

Real Sociedad II creates 58% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad II
1.55
Ourense CF
0.74

allows per match

Real Sociedad II
1.03
Ourense CF
1.26

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par
Ourense CF+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Ourense CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw
76%
Real Sociedad II or Ourense CF
73%
Draw or Ourense CF
51%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
24%
Ourense CF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
76%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
41%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
17%
Ourense CF 1+ goals
59%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
22%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
67%
Ourense CF (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Ourense CF away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.55 + Ourense CF defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ourense CF attack 0.74 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more
49%
level
27%
Ourense CF scores more
24%

Real Sociedad II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Real Sociedad II 2–1 Ourense CF

Real Sociedad II beat Ourense CF 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 22, 2024.

The match was played at Reale Arena in Donostia-San Sebastián.