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Ourense CF vs Real Sociedad II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ourense CF
Ourense CF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
3/23/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ourense CF38%
×Draw29%
Real Sociedad II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ourense CF
1.13
Real Sociedad II
1.02

Ourense CF creates 11% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ourense CF
1.34
Real Sociedad II
0.92

allows per match

Ourense CF
1.13
Real Sociedad II
0.92

finishing

Ourense CF+0.00on par
Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ourense CF ↓

Real Sociedad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ourense CF or draw
68%
Ourense CF or Real Sociedad II
71%
Draw or Real Sociedad II
62%

Winning margin

Ourense CF wins by 2+
16%
Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ourense CF 1+ goals
68%
Ourense CF 2+ goals
31%
Ourense CF 3+ goals
11%
Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
64%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
27%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ourense CF (draw refunded)
54%
Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ourense CF at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ourense CF attack 1.34 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.13

Real Sociedad II attack 0.92 + Ourense CF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ourense CF scores more
38%
level
29%
Real Sociedad II scores more
32%

Ourense CF at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ourense CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ourense CF vs Real Sociedad II

Ourense CF beat Real Sociedad II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio O Couto in Ourense.