Real Sociedad II 3–0 Numancia: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Numancia

Javi Martón 89', 78' (pen)

Gabilondo 62'

3/11/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Sociedad II52%

×Draw28%

Numancia20%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchNumancia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.72

Real Sociedad II

1.37

Numancia

0.72

Real Sociedad II creates 90% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 19 away

1.85

creates per match

0.63

0.80

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.85

Numancia

0.63

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

0.80

Numancia

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Numancia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Numancia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

80%

Real Sociedad II or Numancia

72%

Draw or Numancia

48%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

26%

Numancia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

75%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

40%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

16%

Numancia 1+ goals

51%

Numancia 2+ goals

16%

Numancia 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

73%

Numancia (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Numancia away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Numancia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.37

Numancia attack 0.63 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

52%

level

28%

Numancia scores more

20%

Real Sociedad II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

J. Olasagasti

44'

J. Tamayo

59'

Jesús Carrillo← Jesús Tamayo

62'

Gabilondo

64'

A. Arambarri

66'

Javi Martón← Ander Martín

66'

Jordi Tur← Arthur

66'

Mario Barco← Adrián Mance

78'

Javi MartónPenalty

79'

Ander Zoilo← J. Gómez

79'

Daniel Garrido← Pablo Marín

79'

Antonio Zarzana← Íñigo Muñoz

79'

Dani Sánchez← Jaume Pol

81'

Toni Arranz

87'

Imanol Ezkurdia← Jon Ander Olasagasti

88'

Javier Marton

89'

Javi Martón

Real

Numancia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sergio Francisco

66'▲Javi Martón←▼Ander Martín

79'▲Ander Zoilo←▼J. Gómez

79'▲Daniel Garrido←▼Pablo Marín

87'▲Imanol Ezkurdia←▼Jon Ander Olasagasti

Real Sociedad II substitutes

MartónZoiloGarridoEzkurdiaDadieCarbonellTeijeiraAzkuneBaldaAguirreRodríguezOlasagasti

Manager: Iñaki Bea

59'▲Jesús Carrillo←▼Jesús Tamayo

66'▲Jordi Tur←▼Arthur

66'▲Mario Barco←▼Adrián Mance

79'▲Antonio Zarzana←▼Íñigo Muñoz

79'▲Dani Sánchez←▼Jaume Pol

Numancia substitutes

CarrilloTurBarcoZarzanaSánchezCotánFabriMahicasŠimićVicario

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Sociedad II 3–0 Numancia

Real Sociedad II beat Numancia 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 11, 2023.

Goals: Gabilondo (62'), Javi Martón (78' pen, 89').

The match was played at Instalaciones de Zubieta in Donostia-San Sebastián.

Real Sociedad II vs Numancia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Sociedad II 3–0 Numancia