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Numancia vs Real Sociedad II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Numancia
Numancia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
10/8/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Numancia34%
×Draw29%
Real Sociedad II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Numancia
1.08
Real Sociedad II
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 46 away

creates per match

Numancia
1.00
Real Sociedad II
1.26

allows per match

Numancia
1.00
Real Sociedad II
1.17

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par
Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Real Sociedad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Numancia or draw
63%
Numancia or Real Sociedad II
71%
Draw or Real Sociedad II
66%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+
14%
Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals
66%
Numancia 2+ goals
29%
Numancia 3+ goals
10%
Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
68%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
31%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)
48%
Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.00 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Real Sociedad II attack 1.26 + Numancia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Numancia scores more
34%
level
29%
Real Sociedad II scores more
37%

Real Sociedad II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Numancia vs Real Sociedad II

Numancia beat Real Sociedad II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos in Soria.