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Real Sociedad II vs Laredo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Laredo
Laredo
11/1/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Real Sociedad II66%
×Draw21%
Laredo13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Sociedad II
1.97
Laredo
0.74

Real Sociedad II creates 166% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 13 away

creates per match

Real Sociedad II
1.85
Laredo
0.69

allows per match

Real Sociedad II
0.80
Laredo
2.08

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par
Laredo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Laredo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw
87%
Real Sociedad II or Laredo
79%
Draw or Laredo
34%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
41%
Laredo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
86%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
58%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
31%
Laredo 1+ goals
52%
Laredo 2+ goals
17%
Laredo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
83%
Laredo (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Laredo away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Laredo defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.97

Laredo attack 0.69 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more
66%
level
21%
Laredo scores more
13%

Real Sociedad II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Real Sociedad II 3–0 Laredo

Real Sociedad II beat Laredo 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Zubieta XXI in Lasarte-Oria.