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Laredo vs Real Sociedad II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Laredo
Laredo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Sociedad II
Real Sociedad II
1/31/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Camp Municipal D'esports Sant Llorenç des Cardassar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Laredo39%
×Draw30%
Real Sociedad II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laredo
1.13
Real Sociedad II
0.97

Laredo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

creates per match

Laredo
1.08
Real Sociedad II
1.26

allows per match

Laredo
0.69
Real Sociedad II
1.17

finishing

Laredo+0.00on par
Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laredo ↓

Real Sociedad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Laredo or draw
69%
Laredo or Real Sociedad II
70%
Draw or Real Sociedad II
61%

Winning margin

Laredo wins by 2+
16%
Real Sociedad II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Laredo 1+ goals
68%
Laredo 2+ goals
31%
Laredo 3+ goals
11%
Real Sociedad II 1+ goals
62%
Real Sociedad II 2+ goals
25%
Real Sociedad II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Laredo (draw refunded)
56%
Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laredo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laredo attack 1.08 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Real Sociedad II attack 1.26 + Laredo defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Laredo scores more
39%
level
30%
Real Sociedad II scores more
31%

Laredo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Laredo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laredo vs Real Sociedad II

Laredo and Real Sociedad II drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Camp Municipal D'esports Sant Llorenç des Cardassar in Sant Llorenç des Cardassar.