Real Sociedad II 0–2 Huesca: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Huesca

I. Pitta 90', 17'

9/24/2021

Segunda División · Round 7Reale Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Real Sociedad II43%

×Draw23%

Huesca34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchHuesca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.49

Real Sociedad II

1.69

Huesca

1.49

Real Sociedad II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.34

creates per match

1.54

1.44

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.34

Huesca

1.54

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

1.44

Huesca

2.03

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Real Sociedad II-0.01on par

Huesca-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Huesca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

66%

Real Sociedad II or Huesca

77%

Draw or Huesca

57%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

22%

Huesca wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

82%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

50%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

24%

Huesca 1+ goals

77%

Huesca 2+ goals

44%

Huesca 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

56%

Huesca (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.44 · 6 matches

Huesca away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.03 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.34 + Huesca defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.69

Huesca attack 1.54 + Real Sociedad II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

43%

level

23%

Huesca scores more

34%

Real Sociedad II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Andrés Fernández

Huesca · G

8.3

Match Events

17'

I. Pitta↳ Marc Mateu

24'

Kelechi Nwakali

40'

Jorge Pulido

52'

Andrei RațiuGoal cancelled

56'

Karrikaburu← Javi Martón

58'

Pedro Mosquera← Juan Carlos

70'

Daniel Garrido← Aritz Aldasoro

70'

Mikel Rico← K. Nwakali

71'

Jaime Seoane

79'

Joaquín Muñoz← A. Rațiu

79'

F. Miguel← Dani Escriche

79'

J. Buffarini← David Ferreiro

83'

Ander Zoilo← Jon Magunacelaya

83'

Gabilondo← Roberto López

83'

Iker Kortajarena← Ander Martín

85'

Jon Ander Olasagasti

90+3'

Joaquín Muñoz

90'

I. Pitta↳ Jaime Seoane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealHuesca

Overview

50%Possession50%

17Total Shots12

6Corners5

10Fouls18

Shots

17Total Shots12

5On Target4

8Off Target5

4Blocked3

8Inside Box10

9Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

436Total Passes439

349Accurate Passes348

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls18

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides4

Segunda División: Real Sociedad II 0–2 Huesca

Huesca beat Real Sociedad II 2-0 in Segunda División on September 24, 2021.

Goals: I. Pitta (17', 90').

Real Sociedad II controlled possession (50%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Reale Arena in Donostia-San Sebastián.

Real Sociedad II vs Huesca — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Real Sociedad II 0–2 Huesca