Huesca 1–2 Real Sociedad II: Result & Stats

Huesca

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Sociedad II

J. Escobar 90'

J. Ochieng 77'

L. Astiazaran 27'

5/11/2026

Segunda División · Round 39Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Huesca48%

×Draw22%

Real Sociedad II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuescaExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.45

Huesca

1.90

Real Sociedad II

1.45

Huesca creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.74

creates per match

1.51

1.39

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Huesca

1.74

Real Sociedad II

1.51

allows per match

Huesca

1.39

Real Sociedad II

2.07

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Huesca-0.34scores less

Real Sociedad II-0.07on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Huesca or draw

70%

Huesca or Real Sociedad II

78%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

52%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+

27%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals

85%

Huesca 2+ goals

56%

Huesca 3+ goals

29%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

77%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

42%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)

62%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.39 · 5 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.07 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.74 + Real Sociedad II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.90

Real Sociedad II attack 1.51 + Huesca defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Huesca scores more

48%

level

22%

Real Sociedad II scores more

30%

Huesca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

L. Astiazaran

Real Sociedad II · M

9.2

Match Events

1'

Ibai Aguirre

5'

Kazunari Kita

20'

Jon Balda

27'

L. Astiazaran↳ I. Aguirre

39'

U. Agote← J. Balda

45+4'

Iñigo Piña

48'

Jorge Pulido

54'

E. Rodriguez← Toni Abad

55'

60'

63'

66'

72'

73'

J. Escobar← O. Sielva

73'

A. Lebarbier← I. Aguirre

73'

A. Mariezkurrena← G. Carrera

77'

J. Ochieng↳ L. Astiazaran

78'

J. Seoane← S. Enrich

78'

J. Martin← L. Beltran

80'

G. Gorosabel← L. Astiazaran

80'

A. Unax← J. Ochieng

90+2'

Daniel Luna

90+6'

Alex Lebarbier

90'

J. Escobar↳ E. Rodriguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuescaReal

Overview

62%Possession38%

19Total Shots16

1.64Expected Goals (xG)1.35

9Corners7

9Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots16

5On Target5

6Off Target6

8Blocked5

12Inside Box11

7Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

399Total Passes246

307Accurate Passes165

77%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls14

5Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Huesca vs Real Sociedad II

Real Sociedad II beat Huesca 2-1 in Segunda División on May 11, 2026.

Goals: L. Astiazaran (27'), J. Ochieng (77'), J. Escobar (90').

Huesca controlled possession (62%) and registered 19 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio El Alcoraz in Huesca.

Huesca vs Real Sociedad II — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Huesca vs Real Sociedad II