Real Sociedad II 1–1 Haro Deportivo: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Haro Deportivo

Roberto López 1'

Isaac Manjón 79'

3/8/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Estadio Zubieta XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Real Sociedad II55%

×Draw25%

Haro Deportivo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad IIExpected goals in this matchHaro Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.84

Real Sociedad II

1.58

Haro Deportivo

0.84

Real Sociedad II creates 88% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 28 away

1.85

creates per match

0.89

0.80

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Real Sociedad II

1.85

Haro Deportivo

0.89

allows per match

Real Sociedad II

0.80

Haro Deportivo

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad II ↓

Haro Deportivo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Sociedad II or draw

80%

Real Sociedad II or Haro Deportivo

75%

Draw or Haro Deportivo

45%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

29%

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

79%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

47%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

21%

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals

57%

Haro Deportivo 2+ goals

21%

Haro Deportivo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

73%

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad II attack 1.85 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.58

Haro Deportivo attack 0.89 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Real Sociedad II scores more

55%

level

25%

Haro Deportivo scores more

20%

Real Sociedad II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real Sociedad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Roberto López

59'

Isaac Manjón← Mikel Bueno

64'

Aritz Aldasoro← Xeber Alkain

72'

Unai Veiga← Ander Gorostidi

75'

I. Dieng← Álex Valiño

79'

Isaac Manjón

84'

Garrido← Robert Navarro

89'

Joseba García← F. Ballardo

Real

Haro

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Xabi Alonso

64'▲Aritz Aldasoro←▼Xeber Alkain

72'▲Unai Veiga←▼Ander Gorostidi

84'▲Garrido←▼Robert Navarro

Real Sociedad II substitutes

AldasoroVeigaGarridoEzkurdiaDjouahraOlasagastiAgirre

Manager: Aitor Calle

59'▲Isaac Manjón←▼Mikel Bueno

75'▲I. Dieng←▼Álex Valiño

89'▲Joseba García←▼F. Ballardo

Haro Deportivo substitutes

ManjónDiengGarcíaIbáñezPresaPirriKonaté